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IRELAND FACES COLOSSAL fines from the EU if it does not significantly reduce its emissions.
The worst case scenario is a fine of over €26 billion - the equivalent of 11 National Children’s Hospitals given that the final cost of that project is forecast to come in at around €2.3bn.
Even the best case scenario for Ireland’s projected emissions reductions will see the country hit with fines of between €3.4bn and €7.5bn.
Thee Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) warns this morning that Ireland will drastically fall short of its 51% greenhouse gas emissions reduction by the end of the decade.
If all current policies in place to reduce emissions are applied, Ireland will manage only a 23% reduction when compared to 2018. Last year, Ireland was projected to achieve a 29% reduction by 2030.
The gap has widened based on updated information from government bodies.
For example, the Department of Transport has given a new best case scenario of 641,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030 – not the 945,000 electric vehicles it had previously modelled.
Updated energy sector projections have also been incorporated.
The EPA warned that the land and forestry is likely to increase its emissions by up to 95% by 2030.
That’s because the age of Ireland’s forests means more harvesting is expected.
It means that Ireland will not meet its EU Effort Sharing Regulation target of 42% reduction by 2030, the EPA said. A maximum reduction of 22% is forecast.
Agriculture and transport are the sectors that produce the largest amount of emissions. Transport will exceed its sectoral emission ceiling, a cap placed on the amount of emissions the sector can emit in order to meet national and EU targets.
The land and forestry sector, while responsible for around 6.6% of Ireland’s total emissions at present, is projected to increase its emissions by up to 95% with existing measures currently in place. If additional measures are put in place, it may increase by up to 42%.
Agriculture, which is responsible for just under 38% of Ireland’s total emissions, is now being examined differently by the EPA. Updated science has led the EPA to determine that the sector can no longer be compared to its sectoral emissions ceiling as other sectors are. Agriculture emissions are expected to fall by 16%.
Sectoral emissions ceilings are maximum greenhouse gases emission outputs permitted for certain sectors of the economy over a specific time period – in this case, between 2018 and 2030. Ceilings for building, agriculture, transport, and industry are all set to be exceeded, the EPA reports.
Each five-year carbon budget over the period is also projected to be exceeded.
Measures to reduce emissions are also not performing at a level to meet targets. Onshore wind, offshore wind, and solar energy is not projected to meet the level set out in 2024′s Climate Action Plan.
Biomethane, a natural renewable gas that is the purified version of biogas produced from the breakdown of organic matter, is projected to fall short.
Similarly, district heating is significantly short of its government target.
Electric vehicle numbers are currently projected to reach 640,750 with additional measures, and 560,000 with existing measures. Both are significantly short of the government target.
As of 2024, there were 148,000 electric vehicles in Ireland. Of those vehicles, 82,500 were fully electric and 66,500 were plug-in electric hybrid vehicles.
Minister for Climate, Environment and Energy, as well as Transport, Darragh O’Brien, said that the government was “fully aware” of the scale of the climate challenge and he pledged to close the gap to Ireland’s targets.
He said electric vehicle sales were up for the first four months of this year compared with last.
He added that the EPA’s projections were not “absolute forecasts” but rather reflected “delivery to date”.
“The first Climate Action Plan of this Government was delivered last month. Cross-departmental taskforces are in place. Governance arrangements have been strengthened, with the first meeting of the new Climate Action Programme Board held last week, involving senior officials from all the main sectors – including energy, transport and agriculture,” O’Brien said.
“Its remit is clear: to focus on accelerated delivery of the actions needed to close the emissions gap.”
Stop Climate Chaos, a coalition of over 30 organisations campaigning to ensure Ireland tackles the causes and consequences of climate change, has described the EPA figures as “alarming and shocking”.
Oisín Coghlan, Public Policy Advisor to the Stop Climate Chaos coalition, warned Ireland is “going backwards on the path to a pollution-free future”.
Coghlan called on the government to introduce a moratorium on any new data centres that won’t be running on 100% renewables from the start.
He also called for a reinstatement of a ban on commercial LNG imports and to use the Infrastructure and Climate Fund, and the EU’s Social Climate Fund, to retrofit all social housing and to put solar panels on every school, church, sports club and community hall by 2030.
Coghlan also called for “immediate action to reduce agricultural emissions”
“Some 29% of our emissions come from methane, the government simply has to take action to reduce that in line with our legally binding pollution limits,” said Coughlan.
Unsure of what exactly is happening with the earth’s climate? Check out our FactCheck Knowledge Bank for essential reads and guides to finding good information online.
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